Democrat Talarico leads Republican Paxton in new U.S. Senate race polling

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(The Center Square) – Less than 100 days from the midterm election, a Democrat is ahead in the polls for the U.S. Senate race in Texas. 

State Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, has surpassed Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by at least 2 points. The race remains statistically tied. 

A new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll has Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%. Six remain undecided with 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown, according to the poll. 

Talarico holds a lead among women, Hispanic and Black voters. Paxton holds a lead with white and male voters, according to the data.

Talarico’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are nearly tied, 46% and 47%, respectively. Paxton’s unfavorable rating of 57% is higher than his favorable rating of 39%.

The poll was conducted among 1,200 likely Texas voters between July 27 and 30. It has a margin of error of 2.83%.

A new Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research Fox News Poll has Talarico leading Paxton by three points, 51% to 48%. 

Those polled cited inflation and high prices as their top concern, followed by immigration and border security.

The poll was conducted among 1,006 Texas registered voters between July 23 and 27. It has a margin of error of 3 points. It also includes an oversample of registered Hispanic voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.

Last month, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll had Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%. 

“Talarico’s lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election,” TPOR states. “Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins.”

Talarico is leading with Black and Hispanic voters, has a 20-point lead with Independents and a 34-point lead with moderates, TPOR notes.

The only demographic advantage Paxton has in this poll is with white voters.

The poll was conducted among 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17. It has a margin of error of 3.4%. 

A New York Times/Siena poll has Talarico and Paxton tied at 47%.

A Democrat hasn’t held the U.S. Senate seat that Talarico and Paxton are running for since Lyndon B. Johnson, The Center Square reported. Johnson was the last Democrat elected to the seat in 1948. He resigned in 1961 to become U.S. vice president. His appointed replacement lost his election to Republican John Tower in 1961. Republican Phil Gramm was next elected to the seat, followed by John Cornyn in 2002. Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May Republican runoff election.

The TSU poll shows Republicans are leading in five statewide races. 

In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican Dan Patrick is leading state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin, 46% to 39%. Three percent support Libertarian Anthony Cristo; 12% remain undecided.

In the race for Texas Attorney General, state Sen. Mayes Middleton, R-Galveston, is leading state Sen. Nathan Johnson, D-Dallas, 46% to 41%. Three percent support Libertarian Tom Oxford; 10% remain undecided, according to the data.

In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham is leading Democrat Benjamin Flores, 45% to 40%. Two percent support Libertarian Neill Snider; 13% remain undecided, according to the data.

In the Texas Comptroller race, Republican Don Huffines is leading state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, 46% to 39%. Two percent support Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza; 13% remain undecided, according to the data.

In the Texas Railroad Commissioner race, Republican Bo French is leading state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, D-Austin, 45% to 41%. Two percent support Libertarian Arthur DiBianca; 13% remain undecided, according to the data.

An unexpectedly close race is the race for governor, in which Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott is running for his fourth term. 

According to new polls, Abbott is nearly statistically tied with state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, The Center Square reported. 

On Thursday, Abbott launched a $10 million statewide television ad, “What’s at Stake,” comparing Abbott’s record with Democrats’ “socialist” policies.