New poll shows Abbott, Talarico races statistically tied

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(The Center Square) – A new poll indicates that Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, are statistically tied in their respective races. 

The Overton Insights and Texas Public Policy Foundation poll shows that Abbott leads state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, by one point, which is within the margin  of error, making the race statistically tied. 

Abbott leads Hinojosa 46.9% to 45.8%, with 7.3% undecided, according to the poll. When “leaners” are included, Abbott’s margin expands to 2.4 points, the poll found. 

Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham said the “governor’s race being within the margin of error is one of the more surprising results in the poll. Abbott is a fairly popular Republican governor, but it’s clear that the national backlash against Republicans and Trump has brought Abbott down.”

Cunningham says the race “is still up for grabs. Despite a number of close polls, Abbott remains a substantial favorite in the betting markets.”

The analysis was released after a University of Virginia’s Center for Politics adjusted the governor’s race from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican,” The Center Square reported.

The Cook Political Report also adjusted its rating for the race to “leans right” instead of solidly Republican, The Center Square reported.

In the U.S. Senate race, the Overton Insights/TPPF poll found that Talarico is leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by one point, 44% to 43%, also a statistical tie.  

This was after the UVA Center for Politics adjusted the race from “leans Republican” to a “toss up” and the Cook Political Report also adjusted the race as a “toss-up.” 

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll has Talarico leading Paxton by six points and among independents by 21 points. It also has Abbott leading Hinojosa by seven points. 

A Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll has Talarico leading Paxton by two points and Abbott leading Hinojosa by six points. A Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research Fox News Poll has Talarico leading Paxton by three points and Abbott leading Hinojosa by one point. A New York Times/Siena poll has Talarico and Paxton tied at 47% and Abbott holding a 7-point lead over Hinajosa, The Center Square reported.

A Texas Pulse poll shows Abbott leading Hinojosa by one point and Talarico leading Paxton by four points. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll has Abbott leading Hinojosa by five points and Talarico leading Paxton by three points. 

The UT/TPP poll highlights data points indicating that President Donald Trump has lost favorability with some Texas voters. The Overton poll also shows similar findings.  

Trump’s approval rating has dropped in Texas, with 44% of Texas voters approving of his job performance and 56% disapproving, according to the Overton poll. Trump previously carried the state in three elections, and many now consider his endorsements as a liability for some Republicans. 

“A double-digit negative approval rating in Texas is not a number any Republican strategist wants to see just two years after Trump carried Texas by double digits,” Cunningham said. “Trump’s poor approval rating isn’t just a swing state problem anymore; it's showing up in one of the party's most reliable battlegrounds.”

The UT/TPP poll shows that 54% of likely Texas voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s tariffs and are evenly split on his approach to immigration.

The poll’s demographics indicate its findings appear to be potentially skewed.  

The majority polled, nearly 52%, identify as native Texans who were born in the state. The rest are Texas transplants who’ve relocated to the state within the last 10 years.  

The overwhelming majority polled are from urban areas, are white, have college and post graduate degrees and are over age 55. Texas’ population is half Hispanic and Hispanic voters play a key role in election outcomes.