Poll: GOP U.S. Senate, AG races statistically tied

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(The Center Square) – A new poll conducted by the Texas Politics Project shows the Republican primary races for U.S. Senate and attorney general are statistically tied. It also indicates several candidates in other races are expected to win by large margins. 

Early voting is underway and goes through Friday. The primary election is March 3.

The poll, a project of the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin, was conducted between Feb. 2 and 16 before early voting began. It surveyed 1,300 registered voters with an oversample of verified primary voters. 

U.S. Senate race

The Republican U.S. Senate primary race is expected to head to a runoff election.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican first elected in 2002, is running for reelection. He is being challenged by Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. The poll indicates Cornyn and Paxton are statistically tied with Paxton receiving 36% support, Cornyn 34% and Hunt 26%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.24%. 

If no candidate wins 50%, the two candidates who receive the most votes will head to a runoff election, which is scheduled for May 26. 

The project also notes that Paxton’s favorability has dropped and Cornyn’s has increased.

“Despite significant resources being spent in efforts to shape the GOP electorate’s views of two candidates who have held statewide office for a combined 48 years, views of Paxton among Republican voters have remained relatively static, if slightly more negative, at the beginning of 2026, while for Senator Cornyn, in a now familiar pattern during his election seasons, positive views of him increased among Republican voters on the eve of early voting,” James Henson, PhD, executive director of the UT project notes.

Paxton’s 52% favorability rating represents “a slight decline from last year (55% in August 2025), but a significant decline from only a few years ago (66% favorable in August 2022)” among Republican voters, he adds. 

Cornyn’s current 50% favorability rating “is higher than any of the six measurements taken in 2025, and 12 points higher than in December 2025 polling,” the project states.

Of the Democrats running for U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett holds a strong lead over state Rep. James Talarico by a 56% to 44% margin. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.1%. 

Texas Attorney General 

The Republican primary race is also expected to head to a runoff election.  

Among Republicans, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy has 40% support from likely primary voters, state Sen. Mayes Middleton has 38%, state Sen. Joan Huffman has 9%. The poll’s margin of error of +/- 5.73% “effectively render[s] frontrunners Roy and Middleton in a statistical toss-up,” the project notes.

Among Democrats running, former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski received 52% support from likely primary voters, state Sen. Nathan Johnson 28%, and attorney Tony Box, 10%. The project notes that “the lack of attention to the Democratic race was reflected in a low number of responses to the question, which yielded a margin of error of +/- 7.24%.” 

Gubernatorial and other races

The races for governor and lieutenant governor are expected to be blowouts. Polls for these races have a margin of error of +/- 2.72%. 

Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is running for his fourth term, has 91% support of likely primary voters “in a field of largely obscure candidates.”

His likely Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa has 76% support from likely Democratic primary voters.

Incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has 87% support; his likely Democratic challenger, state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, has 63% support from likely primary voters, according to their respective polls.

Other statewide races include state agriculture commissioner, with key Republicans endorsing Nate Sheets, who is challenging incumbent Sid Miller after years of allegations of corruption at the agency continue, The Center Square reported. 

The state comptroller race has made national news after a New Mexico newspaper revealed Republican candidate Don Huffines secretly purchased a known child sex trafficker’s ranch. At the same time files were released by the Department of Justice prompting New Mexico attorney general and state legislature to launch investigations into multiple allegations of sex trafficking and murder, The Center Square reported. Abbott, Texas leaders and law enforcement have endorsed Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock.

Multiple races for State Board of Education, all state legislative and congressional seats are also on the ballot. Multiple candidates are running for six open congressional races after incumbent Republicans announced they were retiring or seeking higher office, The Center Square reported.

There are also 10 ballot propositions on the Republican primary ballot and 13 on the Democratic ballot, The Center Square reported.