Analysts: Republicans face long odds of maintaining U.S. House control

Audio By Carbonatix

(The Center Square) – With polls opening for election day in less than 24 hours, Democrats appear primed to take back the U.S. House, according to election analysts.

Democrats currently hold 215 seats in the lower chamber. But with Democrats leading Republicans in the polls – both in general and in previously safe Republican districts in Texas, Kentucky and elsewhere – Cook Political Report projects that Democrats will flip 15 to 25 seats.

The election analyzer currently labels 18 House races as “toss ups,” which means polls show either party has a chance of winning.

That’s far fewer than last week, due to Cook Political Report moving races in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin out of the “toss up” category and into the “lean Democrat” category.

Even if Democrats lose every toss-up race, they will hold 222 seats in the 120th Congress if they win every “lean Democrat” race, surpassing the House’s 218-seat majority threshold. In a worst-case-scenario for Republicans, Democrats could end up holding 240 seats, according to Cook Political Report projections.

Republicans and Democrats have spent Nov. 2 feverishly courting voters, both at rallies and on social media.

Democrats have tapped into voters’ angst about high gas and grocery prices, which are largely due to the Trump administration’s tariffs and its attack on Iran — a conflict that most congressional Republicans have shied away from condemning outright.

U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., also lambasted U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., in a social media video for releasing the chamber early on multiple occasions, resulting in House lawmakers spending only 72 days in session during 2026.

“Republicans keep canceling votes and sending us on vacation because they have no idea how to run this place,” McGovern said, adding that Democrats would lower costs if they retake Congress.

Republicans are reminding voters of the more than $3 trillion in tax cuts the party passed in 2025 and of the administration's crackdown on illegal immigration.

“Never forget that Democrats’ open-border policies allowed millions of unvetted illegal immigrants into our country,” Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, whose seat is considered safe, posted on social media Monday. “Today, southwest border apprehensions are down 95% from the previous administration.”

Key House toss-up races to watch include Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, and Texas’ 34th and 35th Congressional Districts.